Status Report on U.S. Wind Energy
= March 25, 2024 =
SUN DAY CAMPAIGN (founded 1992)
Ken Bossong, editor
8606 Greenwood Avenue, Suite #2
Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656
Phone: 301-588-4741
sun-day-campaign@hotmail.com
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U.S. NET ELECTRICAL GENERATION:
(in gigawatt-hours GWh)
January 1 – December 31, 2023:
- 425,235 – Total (10.00% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024) [see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2022:
- 434,297 – Total (10.12% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024) [see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2021:
- 378,197 – Total (9.10% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Annual,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)
January 1 – December 31, 2020:
- 337,938 – Total (8.34% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Annual,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)
January 1 – December 31, 2015:
- 190,927 – Total (4.66% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 25, 2016) [see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2010:
- 94,647 – Total (2.30% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
- Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (March xx, 2011) [see Table ES1.B]
INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY:
(Data are provided for only utility-scale installations – i.e., >1-MW)
December 31, 2023:
- 151.04 GW (11.73% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 15, 2024)
December 31, 2022:
- 143.28 GW (11.36% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 7, 2023)
December 31, 2021:
- 133.00 GW (10.68% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (March 8, 2022)
December 31, 2020:
- 119.67 GW (9.83% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 8, 2021)
December 31, 2015:
- 74.00 GW (6.33% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 2, 2016)
December 31, 2010:
- 38.50 GW (3.40% share of total available installed generating capacity)
- Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 4, 2011)
AVERAGE ANNUAL CAPACITY FACTORS:
(Capacity factors are a comparison of net generation with available capacity. They are available only for utility-scale installations.)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024)
- 2023: (preliminary data) – 33.5%
- 2022: 35.9%
- 2021: 34.4%
- 2020: 35.3%
- 2015: 32.2%
- 2010: 29.7%
NEAR-TERM GROWTH FORECASTS:
U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Installed capacity of wind energy totaled 141,275-MW in 2022. It increased by 4.42% to 147,517-MW in 2023. It will increase by another 4.54% in 2024 to 154,221-MW and then to 159,857-MW in 2025. In 2022, electricity generation by wind increased by 14.81% compared to 2021. However, it fell by 2.07% in 2023. It is projected to rebound in 2024 to a level 3.00% above that of 2022. Wind power in 2025 should be 6.68% above 2022’s level.
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (March 12, 2024)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission:
Additions of utility-scale wind between January 2024 and December 2026 could total 75,692-MW with 24,635-MW deemed “high probability additions” in addition to 140-MW of “retirements.” High-probability additions alone would bring total utility-scale wind generating capacity to 175,540-MW by December 2026; wind would then account for ~12.78% of total U.S. generating capacity.
- Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, “Energy Infrastructure Update for December 2023” (February 15, 2024)
BloombergNEF:
Onshore wind deployment in the U.S. slowed to 7-GW in 2023, compared to 17-GW in 2020, but 2024 and beyond will be a different story. High interest rates, inflation and supply chain constraints are easing and those trends, combined with the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act, are positioning the industry for renewed growth. The U.S. is expected to add 8.4-GW of onshore wind this year, with deployments rising annually to 19.8-GW in 2030.
- Sources: Bloomberg.com, “U.S. Climate Law to Refuel Onshore Wind Energy Developments” (January 23, 2024) (2)
S&P Global Market Intelligence:
The wind industry has a five-year project pipeline from 2023 to 2027 of 79,972-MW. Of that pipeline, 7,241-MW of capacity is under construction; 18,112-MW is in advanced development; 36,506-MW is in early development; and 18,113-MW of capacity has been announced.
- Source: “Renewable Energy World” (September 14, 2023)
U.S. Department of Energy:
Since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, forecasts for land-based wind energy installed in 2026 have increased nearly 60% from about 11,500-MW to 18,000-MW, which is enough to power an additional two million homes. … By 2027, expected additions range from 18.4-GW to 22.7-GW.
- Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2023 Edition” (August 24, 2023)
Bloomberg New Energy Finance:
Between 2023 and 2030, wind power capacity is expected to increase by 137-GW, nearly doubling total capacity compared to 2022 levels.
- Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance “Clean Energy Market Outlook” (April 24, 2023)
Rystad Energy:
Utility-scale onshore wind installations are set to get a boost of about 85-GW by 2030 over previous projections due to the new incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act, pushing total onshore wind capacity close to 280-GW by the end of the decade.
- Source: Rystad Energy, “Inflation Reduction Act Will Attract an Extra $270 Billion in U.S. Wind and Solar Investments by 2030” (August 21, 2022)
Princeton University Zero Lab:
With passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, annual U.S. wind capacity additions could increase from 15-GW in 2020 to an average of 39-GW/year of wind additions in 2025- 2026 (~2x the 2020 pace).
- Source: Princeton University, “The Climate and Energy Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022” (August 2022)
U.S. Energy Information Administration:
Power plant developers and operators plan to install more than 6 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity, at sites mostly along the U.S. eastern seaboard through 2029.
- Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory” (June 30, 2022)
EMPLOYMENT:
U.S. Department of Energy:
Most wind workers in the U.S. – 124,524 – were in land-based wind electric power generation (EPG), and the remaining 1,056 were in offshore wind EPG.
Land based wind: 124,524
Offshore wind: 1,056
JOB GROWTH
Land-based wind added 5,238 workers, for a growth rate of 4.4%.
Offshore wind, although small relative to other renewable energy technologies, had the highest growth rate from 2021 to 2022 (+20.3%, or +178 jobs).
The largest job gains in wind EPG from 2021 to 2022 were in the professional and business services industry, with 1,955 new jobs (+6.3%). Professional and business services was followed by construction, (+1,717), utilities (+1,180), wholesale trade (+582), and other services (+83).
Manufacturing experienced a decline of 101 jobs. The largest number of wind EPG employees was in the construction industry, with 45,088 workers.
- Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report” (June 28, 2023)
American Clean Power Association:
In 2022, the U.S. wind industry supported nearly 126,000 jobs across all 50 states, including nearly 24,000 wind manufacturing jobs at over 500 facilities. Wind turbine technician is the second fastest growing job in the country, increasing by 44% over the next decade. The U.S. wind industry employs America’s veterans at a rate 50% above the national average.
- Sources: American Clean Power Association, “Wind Power Facts” (date – ??)
- U.S. Department of Energy, “DOE Finds Record Production and Job Growth in U.S. Wind Power Sector” (August 16, 2022)
INSTALLATIONS:
U.S. Department of Energy:
The total installed capacity of the U.S. distributed wind sector has reached 1,104-MW from more than 90,000 wind turbines across all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Guam. In 2022, 1,745 turbines with a combined capacity of 2.3-MW were added.
- Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Distributed Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition” (August 24, 2023)
U.S. Department of Energy:
More than 1,000-MW of wind energy capacity have been installed in distributed wind applications across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam.
- Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Distributed Wind Market Report” (March 2024) (2)
American Clean Power Association:
Today, nearly 70,000 wind turbines across the country are generating clean, reliable power.
- Source: American Clean Power Association, “Wind Power Facts” (date – ??)
COST:
Business Council for Sustainable Energy/BloombergNEF:
Onshore wind projects have a benchmark levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of $52/MWh without subsidies, but with tax credits LCOE drops to $37/MWh. The benchmark levelized cost of paired onshore wind-plus-battery (four-hour) systems is $76/MWh.
- Source: BloombergNEF and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy, “2024 Sustainable Energy in America Factbook” (February 21, 2024)
LevelTen Energy:
North American power purchase agreement prices for wind rose by 5% on average, year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023. However, wind price changes saw wide variation between ISOs. P25 prices (i.e., 25th percentile PPA prices) in SPP went up 18% and 8% in ERCOT. Meanwhile, P25 prices in CAISO decreased 6% and 1% in MISO. The decrease in the CAISO P25 price was likely a result of the introduction of out-of-state wind projects settling in CAISO. Wind prices in PJM are up 30% year over year.
- Sources: Windpower Monthly, by Ros Davidson (February xx, 2024) (2) (3)
LevelTen Energy:
The rising costs of wind projects – from financing to interconnection, labor, and supplies – kept PPA prices high in Q3. Wind P25 PPA prices in North America remained relatively stable, with a 1% decrease in Q3, driven by a decline in SPP prices but remained 16% higher year over year, driven by a decline in SPP prices. The quarter’s slight decrease marks a contrast to Q2 prices, which rose 13% amid low supply across ISOs.
- Source: Renewable Energy World, by Sean Wolfe (October 17, 2023)
LevelTen Energy:
Wind contract prices in North America rose in the second quarter by 13% to an average of $58/MWh and 30% year over year. Demand for wind is strong, but projects are difficult to develop due to lengthy permitting processes and high costs for connecting facilities to the grid. In the Midcontinent Independent System Operator market, which includes 15 states in the middle of the country, wind prices were up 24%.
- Source: Windpower Monthly, by Ros Davidson (July xx, 2023) (2)
LevelTen Energy:
In the first quarter of 2023, North American P25 wind index power purchase agreement offer prices rose 4.9% to $51.12 per MWh, after a modest dip last quarter. (In the prior quarter, LevelTen’s wind index dropped for the first time in nearly two years.) Wind offer prices decreased 10.3% in ERCOT, the only ISO to see a drop this quarter. Meanwhile, they rose 20.7% in SPP and 9.4% in MISO compared to last quarter.
- Source: LevelTen, “North American P25 Price Index” (April 18, 2023)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory:
In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent wind power purchase agreements (PPAs) pricing is around $20/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $30/MWh.
- Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “Land-Based Wind Market Report” (August 16, 2022)
The Energy Age 