STATUS REPORT – GEOTHERMAL
April 8, 2024
SUN DAY CAMPAIGN (founded 1992)
Ken Bossong, Editor
8606 Greenwood Avenue; Suite #2;
Takoma Park, MD 20912-6656
301-588-4741; sun-day-campaign@hotmail.com
Twitter: Follow @SunDayCampaign
U.S. NET ELECTRICAL GENERATION
(in gigawatt-hours GWh)
January 1 – December 31, 2023:
16,462 – Total (0.39% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024)
[see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2022:
16,087 – Total (0.37% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 26, 2024)
[see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2021:
15,975 – Total (0.38% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Annual,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)
January 1 – December 31, 2020:
15,890 – Total (0.39% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Annual,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (November 7, 2022)
January 1 – December 31, 2015:
16,767 – Total (0.41% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (February 25, 2016)
[see Table ES1.B]
January 1 – December 31, 2010:
15,666 – Total (0.38% of total net electrical generation by all sources, inc. small-scale PV)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (March xx, 2011)
[see Table ES1.B]
INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY
(Data are provided for only utility-scale installations – i.e., >1-MW)
December 31, 2023:
4.12 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 15, 2024) (more)
December 31, 2022:
4.08 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 7, 2023)
December 31, 2021:
3.94 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (March 8, 2022)
December 31, 2020:
3.90 GW (0.32% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 8, 2021)
December 31, 2015:
3.91 GW (0.33% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 2, 2016)
December 31, 2010:
3.30 GW (0.29% share of total available installed generating capacity)
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (February 4, 2011)
AVERAGE ANNUAL CAPACITY FACTORS
(Capacity factors are a comparison of net generation with available capacity. They are available only for utility-scale installations.)
Source: “Electric Power Monthly,” U.S. Energy Information Administration (March 26, 2024)
- 2023: (preliminary data) 70.0%
- 2022: 69.0%
- 2021: 69.8%
- 2020: 69.1%
- 2015: 71.9%
- 2010: 71.9%
NEAR-TERM GROWTH FORECASTS
U.S. Department of Energy: With the use of next-generation technologies, geothermal power has the potential to expand by more than 20 times from current U.S. installed capacity, contributing 90-GW of clean, firm power nationwide by 2050, and potentially significantly more.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Next-Generation Geothermal Power” (March 18, 2024)
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission: Additions of utility-scale geothermal between February 2024 and January 2027 could total 500-MW with 400-MW of that deemed “high probability additions”. FERC does not forecast any retirements during that period. That could leave total utility-scale geothermal generating capacity at 4,520-MW by January 2027; geothermal would then account for ~0.30% of total U.S. generating capacity.
Source: “Energy Infrastructure Update,” Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (March 14, 2024)
U.S. Energy Information Administration: In 2024 and 2025, U.S. geothermal electrical generating capacity is forecast remain unchanged from the 2023 level of 2,674-MW. However, electrical generation by geothermal is forecast to fall by 4.25% from 16.46 billion kilowatthours in 2023 to 15.76 billion kilowatthours in 2024 and then fall another 6.66% to 14.71 billion kilowatthours in 2025.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Short-Term Energy Outlook” (March 12, 2024)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: Installing geothermal heat pumps in around 70% of U.S. buildings could save as much as 593 terawatt-hours of electricity generation annually (equivalent to about 15% of the current annual electricity demand in the United States) and avoid seven gigatons of carbon-equivalent emissions by 2050.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Grid Cost and Total Emissions Reductions Through Mass Deployment of Geothermal Heat Pumps for Building Heating and Cooling Electrification in the United States” (November 1, 2023) (more)
U.S. Department of Energy: The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model projects that the total amount of installed geothermal is 38.30 GWe in 2035 and 90.52 GWe in 2050. Geothermal technologies account for 1.94% of national generating capacity in 2035 and 3.94% in 2050. However, geothermal technologies make 6.13% of annual generation in 2035 and 12.04% in 2050, three times larger than its percentage of installed capacity. This is due to the high capacity factor of geothermal technologies.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office” (January 2023)
U.S. Department of Energy: Through technology improvements, geothermal electricity generation capacity has the potential to increase to more than 26 times current deployment by 2050. The potential exists for up to 60 gigawatts of electricity-generating capacity, more than 17,000 district heating systems, and up to 28 million geothermal heat pumps.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “GeoVision: Harnessing the Heat Beneath Our Feet” (May 2019)
INSTALLATIONS
U.S. Department of Energy: Current U.S. geothermal power generation nameplate capacity is 3,673-MW from 93 power plants. Of this capacity, 1,300-MW are located on public lands. California and Nevada contribute more than 90% of the current U.S. geothermal power generation, with additional contributions from plants in Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah. Geothermal companies operating in the United States have a combined 58 active developing projects and prospects across nine states, with a majority located in Nevada.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Geothermal Power Production and District Heating Market Report” (July 13, 2021)
There are approximately 50,000 geothermal heat pumps installed in the United States each year.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy
EMPLOYMENT
U.S. Department of Energy: In 2022, 8,635 part- and full-time geothermal workers were employed in electric power generation (EPG). This represents an increase of 413 workers – or 5.0% – over 2021. These were distributed among multiple sectors: utilities (14%), construction (56%), manufacturing (3%), wholesale trade (4%), and professional & business services (22%).
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “U.S. Energy and Employment Jobs Report” (June 28, 2023)
In the electric power generating sector, geothermal energy employed 8,222 workers in 2021 – an increase of 220 jobs over 2020. In addition, another 6,281 workers were employed supporting “Energy Star” ground source or geothermal heat pumps.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, “2022 U.S. Energy & Employment Jobs Report” (June 28, 2022)
Geothermal Resources Council: Geothermal power plants employ about 1.17 persons per MW. Adding related governmental, administrative, and technical jobs, the number increases to 2.13.
Source: Geothermal Resource Council (date – ??)
COST
National Renewable Energy Laboratory: The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for geothermal ranges from $69/MWh to $103/MWh.
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, “2023 Electricity ATB (Annual Technology Baseline) Technologies and Data Overview” (July 24, 2023) (more) (more)
U.S. Department of Energy: The Enhanced Geothermal Shot initiative aims to lower the cost of EGS projects 90% to $45 per MWh by 2035. It said that capturing even a “small fraction” of the U.S.’s geothermal resources could power more than 40 million homes.
Source: U.S. Department of Energy (September 8, 2022)
The Energy Age 